Dienstag, 2. Juni 2009

Roubini Watchblog 17

Nouriel Roubini aka "Dr. Doom" hielt einen Vortrag beim Perimeter Institut:

The Failure to Predict Financial Crises and Recessions”.

Ich verlinke das nur kurz, da ich schon länger nichts mehr von Roubini gebracht habe.

Ich hatte aber noch keine Zeit, mir den Vortrag anzuschauen. Hier nur ein kurzer Auszug:

"At this point, leaving aside some analysts that still see a significant risk of a “depression” or “near depression” the difference between the consensus optimists (who see the Great Recession being over by mid-year (June 2009)) and those that are – like myself – more bearish (and predicted that the recession would last about 24 months and would thus be over by the end of 2009 or early 2010) is only two quarters or so; and even on this point the optimist who saw the bottom being at mid-year are becoming more cautious as the latest batch of US and global macro data has been - at best - mixed. The more relevant issue now is rather whether the recovery – once we reach the bottom – is going to be strong and robust with rapid return to potential growth – as the consensus is currently arguing – or whether the US and other advanced economies will experience a period of at least two years of sub-part below trend growth as the debt overhang of households, financial institutions, corporate firms and governments will lead to less borrowing and lending and less spending (consumption, residential investment, capex spending) growth than in the boom high growth years. I have recently argued in some detail ten reasons why the recovery is going to be below potential. "

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